Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.014880 0.016838 0.018973 0.021477 0.024337 0.027505 0.031287
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.012132 0.014875 0.018130 0.022291 0.027487 0.033782 0.042026
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.010595 0.013701 0.017600 0.022882 0.029889 0.038919 0.051525
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.009495 0.012821 0.017196 0.023410 0.032077 0.043834 0.061157
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.008380 0.011737 0.016327 0.023117 0.033003 0.047018 0.068654
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.007512 0.010868 0.015618 0.022903 0.033925 0.050185 0.076372
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.006805 0.010138 0.015005 0.022719 0.034808 0.053305 0.084284
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.006398 0.009798 0.014914 0.023281 0.036841 0.058328 0.095698
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.005862 0.009203 0.014365 0.023051 0.037563 0.061304 0.104041
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.005607 0.009020 0.014435 0.023804 0.039938 0.067184 0.117950
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005075 0.008340 0.013638 0.023031 0.039638 0.068474 0.123861
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.004683 0.007854 0.013114 0.022664 0.039986 0.070892 0.132046
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004237 0.007246 0.012347 0.021821 0.039442 0.071724 0.137487
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004103 0.007170 0.012490 0.022622 0.041991 0.078526 0.155393
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003949 0.007042 0.012527 0.023224 0.044215 0.084928 0.173273
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003798 0.006905 0.012532 0.023760 0.046354 0.091374 0.192040
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003547 0.006562 0.012127 0.023463 0.046797 0.094439 0.203918
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003329 0.006264 0.011781 0.023245 0.047371 0.097822 0.216896
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003134 0.005994 0.011465 0.023058 0.047986 0.101339 0.230602
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003041 0.005915 0.011516 0.023629 0.050270 0.108706 0.254259
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002867 0.005662 0.011200 0.023396 0.050768 0.112145 0.268890
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002808 0.005637 0.011343 0.024161 0.053572 0.121127 0.298438
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002603 0.005294 0.010802 0.023375 0.052747 0.121551 0.306229